What Q3 2026 tells Canadian business owners about the commercial insurance market, and where the real leverage is now.
By the headline numbers, this should be the best time in years to renew a commercial insurance policy. Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index reported that Canadian commercial rates fell 6% in the third quarter of 2026, extending a run of quarterly declines into a third year. Property fell 8%. Casualty fell 3%. Financial and professional lines fell 4%, and cyber fell 5%.
So here is a question we hear from business owners every week: if rates are falling, why didn't my renewal go down?
Our Q3 data has the answer. Across the small businesses, growing companies and mid-market organizations Summit works with, renewal premiums on unchanged policies rose 1.3% on average over the past year, and 2.5% in Q3. The soft market is real. It just isn't arriving evenly.
Two markets, not one
Marsh's index is weighted toward large corporate accounts, and that is where the steepest cuts are going. The last edition of the Applied Commercial Index, which tracked broker-placed renewals closer to everyday businesses, showed renewals still rising 1.67% in Q1 2026. Our results sit right alongside it.
For most Canadian businesses, the soft market has shown up as stability rather than savings. That is not a bad outcome after several years of steep increases. But it means a renewal at the same price is not automatically a good renewal, and a business that expected a cut should be asking why it didn't get one.
The average hides a wide spread
The 1.3% figure is an average. Underneath it, outcomes split almost three ways:
- 35% of renewals went up
- 39% stayed flat
- 26% came down
Two businesses in the same industry, renewing in the same month, can land on opposite sides of that split. The difference usually comes down to how the risk was presented, how hard the renewal was marketed, and whether anyone asked for better terms.
Where the pressure is, and where it isn't
Not every line of coverage is moving the same way. Over the past twelve months:
- Commercial auto rose 10.8%, the clearest pressure point in the market, driven by repair costs, vehicle theft and larger liability settlements.
- Commercial property rose 4.6% and professional liability 4.0%.
- General liability (+0.1%), directors and officers (0.0%) and cyber (+0.5%) were essentially flat.
By province, British Columbia renewals were slightly down (−0.6%), while Ontario (+2.4%), Alberta (+2.6%) and Manitoba (+4.9%) rose. By industry, hospitality saw the biggest decreases (−4.3%), while wholesale and distribution saw the largest increases (+8.4%).
Mid-market businesses feel it more
The most telling gap in our data is by size. Over the past year, mid-market renewals rose 3.7%, compared with 0.9% for small businesses, and nearly half of mid-market renewals went up.
That makes sense. Larger programs are priced on their detail: property values, multi-location operations, contracts, US exposure and how primary and excess layers fit together. At that size, the market cycle matters less than the quality of the submission and the structure of the program.
Why we measure renewals this way
There is a reason a premium alone has become a poor measure of a good renewal. Marsh noted that many buyers are using the soft market to buy higher limits, lower deductibles and broader coverage. That is smart, but it pushes premiums up even as rates fall.
That is why our report compares each renewal with its own expiring policy and leaves out upsells and limit changes. It shows what happened to the price of keeping the same protection. The figures still include ordinary business growth, such as higher revenue or more vehicles, so they describe renewal outcomes rather than a pure rate index.
Where the leverage is right now
A soft market rewards businesses that prepare. Here is where we see clients getting the most out of this window:
- Ask why your renewal didn't come down. If your account is clean and Canada-only, there is room to negotiate.
- Revisit limits set years ago. Contracts, revenue and asset values have grown. Your limits may not have, and moving up costs less in a soft market.
- Reprice your deductibles. Lower retentions are available in many lines at a modest cost.
- Check your property values. A soft market does not fix underinsurance. An outdated statement of values can still mean a coinsurance penalty after a loss.
- Start early if you run vehicles or have US exposure. Those parts of the market have not softened, and they need more time and a stronger submission.
- Consider locking in. Marsh flagged early insurer consolidation in Canadian financial lines that could tighten capacity over the coming year. Multi-year terms are worth asking about while capacity is abundant.
How long will it last?
Nobody knows exactly. The conditions behind this market, strong insurer profits, ample capital and lower reinsurance costs, can change quickly after a major catastrophe year. Cyber is softening even as claim severity rises, and that rarely lasts.
The businesses that come out of a soft market best are not the ones that simply paid less. They are the ones that used the window to fix their coverage before the market turned.
Read the full report
The Summit Commercial Insurance Benchmark Report, Q3 2026 breaks down renewal changes by coverage, business size, province and industry, with a section on what mid-market and complex accounts should review beyond price.
Want to know how your own renewal compares? Our team will review your current program and show you where you stand, and where there is room to improve.
Market figures: Marsh Global Insurance Market Index, Q3 2026 (Canada); Applied Commercial Index, Q1 2026. Renewal figures: Summit Commercial Insurance Benchmark Report, Q3 2026, based on Summit placement data for renewals with unchanged coverage. They describe Summit's clients, not the Canadian market as a whole.